Severe weather threat for Wednesday in the western half of OK is worse

Hey folks in the western half of the state - where you can get live weather updates and have access to underground shelter tomorrow afternoon.  You're now in a 'moderate' risk area, which means a 45% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any point.  This is the same level of risk that was present when the big one went through Moore a week ago Monday.  This risk area extends south a little ways into TX, and all the way up through Kansas and into Nebraska.

With any luck, the hail and tornadoes produced will just go through some fields and not hurt anyone, but please be prepared, and spread the word to your neighbors, friends, and family in the area, post it on Facebook, etc.

As this is the forecast 24 hours in advance, it may change.  I would rather notify people about it now and have it change than wait until tomorrow morning and someone doesn't see the email or the blog post.  For now, storms are expected to start firing around 4pm, but could go as early as 2pm.  Be aware, keep your radio/TV on or set up your phone to receive severe weather warnings, and be ready to move.  Typically these storms start off heading to the NE, but as they organize they may 'turn right' and wind up heading due east.  They can also develop quickly - 8 days ago the storm in Moore went from barely there on radar to EF-4 in the space of 30 or 45 minutes.

Almost all of the rest of OK is in a 'slight risk' area as well.  'Slight risk' typically doesn't mean large tornadoes, but there are exceptions to this - an EF-4 in a slight risk area killed a couple of people in a small TX town a couple weeks ago.

Future uncertainty

The uncertainty of my business income is really getting to me (of 100 artist's tables sold, they sold in about 1.5 minutes online, and I was #66.  What happens if my internet connection goes down in that minute when I'm filling out the forms?  There goes almost a quarter of my annual income).  If I could just pop off the dealer's room wait list for two of my conventions, I think I'd be fine (read:  breaking even with practically zero disposable income, and by 'disposable' I'm including 'anything I could put into savings').  I could theoretically be making a lot more money if I could get my websites up and going... or not.  I have no idea how much I could bring in with those.  It's a complete unknown.  Which is part of the reason those keep slipping down the priority list.

If I could find other large conventions to do, that would help immensely.  Thing is, I have to go to one coast or the other to do that.  And I don't think I can legally sell my jewelry in California, because they have a lead in jewelry law that basically says I have to test *every* batch of components I use for lead content.  There is no cheap lead test.  And given that every couple of months I order several hundred little packages of jewelry components... yeah.  Not feasible at all.  The US has a similar law, but it's for children's jewelry only (age 12 and under, I think), so I can deal with that by simply saying my jewelry is for people ages 13 and up.  Can't do that in CA.  That leaves Oregon and Washington, and the east coast.

Logistics are a problem.  If it's a huge con where I'd make lots of money, I have to have someone helping me or people will start stealing stuff because I can't watch 10' worth of table all the time.  But I have no friends who would be willing, even for money, to leave town for almost a week straight to work a con.  And I can't exactly hire a stranger to handle thousands of dollars in cash halfway across the country, even if I am standing right next to them.  And I'm not even sure how I would get there (fly, and ship my setup?  drive, and risk stuff getting stolen out of my car when I'm at a hotel midway / risk getting stopped by corrupt police for having out-of-state plates, and then they do a fake drug dog alert, search my car, and seize my cash?), nor whether the expense of getting there would actually be worth it.

I am working on something else, with a friend / business partner.  If we can break out with what we're working on, I'll be able to retire some day, maybe even early.  Among other things, it's a way for companies to develop profiles for who they want to hire / put on teams, and to find people who fit those profiles.  And it goes way, way beyond what anyone else is doing.  We've spent about 4 years now teaching ourselves the material (and developing new material), experimenting, and figuring out what exactly we can do with what we've got.  My partner already has executive-type clients, so I know that what we can do works, it's just a matter of developing something we can actually sell.

The other option?  I can't afford to live here any more, and move back to OK with my mom.  In a way that would be a relief; I'm darned stressed out right now and it seems to be never-ending.  I could still do some of the larger TX events.  I have friends here, but they're all busy too, and it seems like I hardly ever get to see any of them.  This would not be the first time I've felt the urge to move to a more rural area, plant fruit trees and maybe have chickens, and have some time time and space to experiment with blacksmithing and metal sculpture and more elaborate jewelry (and if I break out with those, as in start bringing in significant income online, I could theoretically move back here if I wanted).  Not to mention, it would be waaay easier to visit family!  Every time I go home, I have to stop and think about whether I need to ask my parents for gas money.  And I hate that.  I know I'm experiencing some overwhelm at the moment (a bout of insomnia a week long, that I'm trying to fix with ambien, isn't helping), and that once I start sleeping better again I'm sure I'll be thrilled again to be where I am, but... right now it's kind of not happy-making.

I wrote the above last night right before bed, and held off posting it to give my brain chemistry a chance to reset.  Not much editing happened between now and then.  It is what it is, only now that I'm more rested, it feels like more of a challenge / more positive.  I'm forging ahead, which is what my dad has told me on several occasions:  "Forge ahead!"

Business as usual

The rest of the past 3 weeks I've spent signing up for my usual conventions - kind of stressful since with the online form-filling-out sign-ups that most cons have gone to, the tables for the popular cons sell out in a matter of minutes.  You have to type fast.  But I've made it into all of them through March of next year, so I'm good to go for that much longer, at least.  I also made it past the new jury that got set up for my largest con, this year.  Wasn't too sure about that one given the style of jewelry that makes up 90% of what I sell (it's very simple, fast, and doesn't give me repetitive strain injuries to make).

I've also been putting together this next round of supply orders - from five different companies - for the next two events.  This process takes days now, which is fine, because it means I'm selling that much more.

After this year's events so far, I started to brainstorm a little more about my business.  And came up with the radical idea to cut the number of different things I'm selling in half, cutting out the lowest sellers.  I have about 200 - 250 different charms and pendants that I sell, and that is too many to keep track of (I have no inventory control system - I can't really afford a professional one with bar codes and a reader and such).

I started on the idea once I figured out how to easily manage inputting all my sales into a spreadsheet.  The way to do it isn't to try to fit all items into a single spreadsheet - it's to have one spreadsheet for each class of items, so it's easier to look at most of the data at once.  I did this for one class of items, and noticed there were some styles that I had sold only one or even none of in the past 2.5 years.  So, out they go.  Going to do that with everything else, too.

Hopefully that will free up some display space, too, so I can experiment with other things.  It's hard to even find the time to do that, though.  Frustrating.  Then there are also the websites I've been wanting to build.  I need about 6 months to sit down and really get creative with all these jewelry bits I have now accumulated, and to get one or two functional websites up.  Maybe I'll have some time over the summer, before the next round of conventions starts up in August.  I applied for one in Tulsa in August, but they're juried too, and I haven't heard back from them.

The wait continues to get into the dealer's rooms in some of these conventions.  I'm in the artists' spaces in several of them, which means competition for tables every year when signing up.  In the dealer's rooms, once you're in,  you're in as long as you pay in advance for your spot.  The stress over whether or not I'll make it into some of the cons every year is not fun.  My big convention in June makes up 20-25% of my annual income.  I probably still have another 4 years to go on the waiting list for the dealer's room ( I got on it 3 or 4 years ago).  I have enough savings to get by for one year if I don't make it in.

Next up, the thoughts on life post.

Gardening

I survived the three events in a row in late March / early April, barely.  It's a good thing I wasn't planning on driving all the way home until after staying a few days at my mom's, because I was pretty much non-functional for those days.  I did manage a trip up to Okeene with my dad to visit Granddad, and got some spectacular pictures of the ice storm the next morning.  Mom and I cooked a bunch of stuff, and it was good.

I made it home and managed to do taxes on my own for the first time, and get them in on time.  It was a frustrating couple of days but I figure it'll get easier as time goes on.

In the past 3 weeks, I think I spent that first week recovering and doing some gardening.  I've got some flowerbeds going (2 xeriscape, 1 'regular' under the shade of a tree most of the day), and re-learned that you have to provide support for tomato plants.  One of mine snapped halfway through in the wind.  I sort of splinted the stem with rocks, and made haste to install cages in the buckets.  That plant is still alive, though it wilts if left in the sun all day, probably because it's running on half water rations.  It's blooming and growing but still hasn't set fruit yet.  The other five tomato plants are setting fruit - the first tomatoes to show up are now almost as big as my fist and have barely started to go from green to yellow-green.

I am really excited to actually be growing fresh produce, though I won't count it a victory until the tomatoes actually ripen and I get them before the birds do.  The plants are obviously happy in their 3-gallon buckets.  The soil they are in is about 1/3 composted cow manure.  That in combination with a ready water supply (there's a reservoir in the bottom) and brand-new potting soil has given them pretty much whatever they want in the way of nutrients.

I've got four red bell pepper plants in larger temporary pots, waiting for me to finish four more of the reservoir buckets.  Having the high-value vegetables in buckets is also really convenient when there's a late frost or high winds forecast - I just move them up against the south wall of the house.  Also I foresee adjusting the amount of sun and shade they're getting as high summer rolls around - the weeks and weeks of 100 degree heat that are possible down here just cook plants that are out in the sun all day, but for now, they're enjoying the light.

I've got butternut squash in the ground that's blooming, so we'll see if it sets fruit.  Kind of an experiment.  I haven't had much luck with squash of any kind in the past; I think it really needs part shade this far south.  

Well, that's the gardening post.  Next up is the business post.